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Accepted 2025-09-18
Published 2025-11-05
Abstract
Questo articolo analizza la relazione tra immigrazione e commercio, concentrandosi sulla regione Veneto in Italia. Il periodo di riferimento è il 2008-2015, che coincide con la crisi economica, pertanto i risultati ottenuti potrebbero essere specifici per quel contesto temporale. La presenza di immigrati in Veneto è stata in costante aumento, anche durante la crisi, sebbene a un ritmo più lento rispetto agli anni precedenti. La questione centrale è quale ruolo possa avere tale presenza nel determinare la stabilità, se non l’espansione, delle relazioni commerciali tra la regione e i Paesi di origine degli immigrati. Le stime basate sul modello gravitazionale suggeriscono una relazione non lineare tra il numero di immigrati e le esportazioni totali dalla (importazioni verso la) provincia ospitante al (dal) Paese d’origine. Inoltre, il tipo di relazione varia a seconda del settore di provenienza del commercio. Ciò potrebbe indicare che ulteriori flussi migratori possano indurre cambiamenti nella struttura dell’economia locale della regione Veneto, fortemente dipendente dal commercio internazionale.
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