Ruolo dell'efficienza nella previsione del default aziendale
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Parole chiave

(technical efficiency
business failure prediction model
financial ratios
principal component analysis
stochastic frontier).

Come citare

Piatti, D., Cincinelli, P., & Castellani, D. (2015). Ruolo dell’efficienza nella previsione del default aziendale. Piccola Impresa Small Business, (2). https://doi.org/10.14596/pisb.189
##plugins.generic.dates.received## 2015-01-28
##plugins.generic.dates.accepted## 2015-06-20
##plugins.generic.dates.published## 2015-08-31

Abstract

This study investigates the role of technical efficiency in predicting the probability of default of a sample of Italian SMEs in the period 2007-2010. This specific period is of particular interest because it is centered on the beginning of the Global Financial Crisis. We argue that technical efficiency allows for a forward-looking perspective and can contribute to shed more light on the reasons behind the default of many Italian SMEs in the particular period considered. The technical efficiency is estimated with a stochastic frontier approach and the efficiency ratio is used as independent variable, along with several financial ratios. Consistently with the literature, the results suggest that efficiency is a good predictor when the financial ratios are also considered.
https://doi.org/10.14596/pisb.189
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