Abstract
Small and micro enterprises have to face stringent financial constraints and, in recent years, they also have to face the effects of the financial crisis and a drop of liquidity. Starting from theoretical and empirical literature reviews about the main financial difficulties of SMEs and about the real effects of financial crises, the paper investigates the situation of the Italian micro and small firms financial structure. The aim is to verify, analyzing the balance sheets of 15.779 companies, which are characteristics and financial problems of Italian firms and if they are able to create value during a crisis.References
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Roggi O.; Giannozzi A. (2008). Predicting sme default risk. Does regional model make sense? 8th Global Conference on Business and Economics.
Sironi A.; Resti A. (2008). Rischio e valore nelle banche. EGEA.
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Stanghellini E. (2009). Introduzione ai metodi statistici per il credit scoring. Springer Verlag.
Watson J. (2003). The potential impact of accessing advice on sme failure rates. 16th Annual Conference of Small Enterprise Association of Australia and New Zealand.
Altman E.; Marco G.; Varetto F. (1994). Corporate distress diagnosis: Comparisons using linear discriminant analysis and neural networks (the italian experience). Journal of Banking and Finance, 18(3)(3), 505–529.
Altman E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The Journal of finance, 23(4), 589–609.
Altman E. I.; Sabato G. (2007). Modelling credit risk for smes: Evidence from the u.s. market. Abacus, 43(3), 332–357.
Beaver W. H. (1966). Financial ratios as predictors of failure. Empirical Research in Accounting: Selected Studies 1966, Vol. 4, 41 (71–111).
Berti A.; Marchiori M. (1998). Intermediari creditizi relazioni di clientela con le PMI. Piccola Impresa / Small Business, n. 3, 1998.
Bracalente B. (2010). Caratteri strutturali e scenari di sviluppo regionale. L’Umbria verso il 2020. Franco Angeli.
Cannata F.; Fabi F.; Laviola S. (2002). Rating interni e gestione del rischio di credito: la misurazione delle probabilità di insolvenza. Bancaria, 4, 45-62.
Cox D. R.; Hinkley D. V. (1974). Theoretical Statistics. Chapman and Hall, London, UK.
De Laurentis G.; Maino R. (2009). I rating a base statistica. Bancaria Editrice.
Friedman C.; Huang J.; de Servigny A.; Salinas E. (2003). A utility based private firm default probability model. Standard & Poor’s. Risk Solutions.
Giampaoli A. (2006). La previsione delle insolvenze. Piccola Impresa/Small Business, n. 3.
Hosmer D. W.; Lemeshow S. (2000). Applied logistic regression. Wiley Series in probability and statistics. Wiley-Interscience Publication.
Huyhebaert N.; Gaeremynck A.; Roodhooft F.; Van de Gucht L. M. (2000). New firm survival: The effects of start-up characteristics. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 27(5-6), 627–651.
Iannuzzi E.; Berardi M. (2006). Interpretazione critico-empirica del modello Modigliani-Miller: il problema del default delle PMI. Una comparazione anglo-Italiana. Piccola Impresa/Small Business, n.1, 2006.
King G.; Zeng L. (2001). Explaining rare events in international relations. International Organization, 55(3), 693–715.
Luppi B.; Marzo M.; Scorcu A. (2007). A credit risk model for Italian SMEs. Università degli studi di Modena, Dipartimento di Economia Politica, Working Paper Series, 600.
Lusignani G.; Sironi A. (1999). L’innovazione nel finanziamento delle PMI. In Forestieri G. e
Onado M. (a cura di). Banche, mercati e strutture di intermediazione. EGEA.
Montrone A. (2005). Il sistema delle analisi di bilancio per la valutazione dell’impresa. Economia- Monografie - Economia e gestione aziendale.
Moody’s (2000). RiskCalc Private Model: Moody’s Default Model For Private Firms. May 2000.
Palazzi E. (2007). Vincoli e opportunità di Basilea 2 per lo sviluppo delle pmi: le opinioni degli operatori economici, Piccola Imresa / Small Business, n. 2.
Pompe P. P.; Bilderbeek J. (2005). The prediction of bankruptcy of small-and medium-sized industrial firms. Journal of Business Venturing, 20(6), 847 – 868.
Roggi O.; Giannozzi A. (2008). Predicting sme default risk. Does regional model make sense? 8th Global Conference on Business and Economics.
Sironi A.; Resti A. (2008). Rischio e valore nelle banche. EGEA.
Standard & Poor’s (2002). Credit risk tracker italy, technical document. Relazione tecnica.
Stanghellini E. (2009). Introduzione ai metodi statistici per il credit scoring. Springer Verlag.
Watson J. (2003). The potential impact of accessing advice on sme failure rates. 16th Annual Conference of Small Enterprise Association of Australia and New Zealand.
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