Contagion in major CDS markets for the post Global Financial Crisis: A multivariate AR-FIGARCH-cDCC approach
PDF (English)

Parole chiave

Financial contagion
Global Financial Crisis
cDCC-AR-FIGARCH model
Sovereign CDS market

Come citare

Tsiaras, K., & Simos, T. (2020). Contagion in major CDS markets for the post Global Financial Crisis: A multivariate AR-FIGARCH-cDCC approach. Argomenti, (16), 79–99. https://doi.org/10.14276/1971-8357.2069
Received 2019-10-12
Accepted 2020-08-25
Published 2020-09-23

Abstract

We explore the time-varying conditional correlations of the Sovereing CDS spread returns for Germany, France, China and Japan against USA. We employ a cDCC-AR-FIGARCH model in order to capture potential contagion effects between the markets during the 2011-2018 post global financial crisis. Empirical results do not reject contagion for the country pairs: Germany – France, Germany – Japan and France – Japan while there is little support for contagion among China and the rest of the countries.

JEL classification: C58, F30, G01, G15

https://doi.org/10.14276/1971-8357.2069
PDF (English)

Riferimenti bibliografici

Aielli, G. P. (2009). Dynamic conditional correlations: on properties and estimation. Technical report, Department of Statistics, University of Florence.

Anderson, M. (2010). Contagion and Excess Correlation in Credit Default Swaps. Working Paper, Department of Finance, Fisher College of Business, Ohio State University.

Antoniou, A, Koutsmos, G., & Percli, A. (2005). Index futures and positive feedback trading: evidence from major stock exchanges. Journal of Empirical Finance, 12(2), 219-238.

Baillie, R. T., Bollerslev, T. & Mikkelsen, H. O. (1996). Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 74(1), 3-30.

Belke A., & Gokus, C. (2011). Volatility Patterns of CDS, Bond and Stock Markets before and during the Financial Crisis Evidence from Major Financial Institutions. Working Papers, Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung.

Blanco, R., Brennan, S., & Marsh, I. W. (2005). An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment-Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps. The Journal of Finance, 60(5), 2255-2281.

Bollerslev, T., Chou, R., & Kroner, K. F. (1992). ARCH modeling in finance: A review of the theory and empirical evidence. Journal of Econometrics, 52(1-2), 5-59.

Calice, G., Chen, J., & Williams, J. (2011). Liquidity Spillovers in Sovereign Bond and CDS Markets. Paolo Baffi Centre Research Paper.

Caporale, G. M., Pittis, N., & Spagnolo, N. (2006) Volatility Transmission and Financial Crises. Journal of Economics and Finance, 30(3), 376-390.

Chen, K, Fleming, M., Jackson, J., Li, A., & Sarkar, A. (2011). An Analysis of CDS Transactions: Implications for Public Reporting. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Staff Reports, 517.

Chen, L., Lesmond, D. A., & Wei, J. (2007). Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity. Journal of Finance, 62(1), 119-149.

Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979)) Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.

Didier, T., Mauro, P., & Schmuckler, S. (2008). Vanishing financial contagion?. Journal of policy modeling, 30, 775-791.

Dimitriou, D, Kenourgios, D., & Simos, T. (2013). Global financial crisis and emerging stock market contagion: A multivariate FIAPARCH-DCC approach. International Review of Financial Analysis, 30, 46-56.

Engle, R. F. (2002). Dynamic conditional correlation: a simple class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20, 339-350.

European Commission’s Directorate-General for Trade (2008): The economic impact of the EU-Japan economic partnership agreement (EPA). European Commision.

Fonseca, J. D., &Gottschalk, K. (2012). The Co-movement of Credit Default Swap Spreads, Stock Market Returns and Volatilities: Evidence from Asia-Pacific Markets. Tech. rep., Working Paper, May 31.

Forbes, K. J., & Rigobon, R. (2002). No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements. The Journal of Finance, 57(5), 2223-2261.

Hull, J.C.(2008). Options, Futures and Other Derivatives. 6th edition, Prentice Hall.

Koseoglu, S. D. (2013). The Transmission of Volatility between the CDS Spreads and Equity Returns Before, During and After the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Turkey. Proceedings of 8th Asian Business Research Conference 1 - 2 April 2013, Bangkok, Thailand.

Lake, A., & Apergis, N. (2009). Credit default swaps and stock prices: Further evidence within and across markets from mean and volatility transmission with a MVGARCH-M model and newer data. University of Pireaeus.

Meng, L., Gwilym, O., & Varas, J. (2009). Volatility Transmission among the CDS, Equity, and Bond Markets. Journal of Fixed Income, 18(3), 33-46.

Sarig, O., & Warga, A. (1989). Some empirical estimates of the risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance, 44(4), 1351-1360.

Schreiber, I., Müller, G., Klüppelberg, C., & Wagner, N. (2009). Equities, Credits and Volatilities: A Multivariate Analysis of the European Market During the Sub-prime Crisis. in: Working Paper, TUM, University of Passau, Germany, in: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1493925, accessed on: January 02, 2013.

Stevens, G. (2008). Economic prospects in 2008: An antipodean view. Address by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia to Australian Business, January 18, London, UK.

Tokat, H. A. (2013). Understanding volatility transmission mechanism among the cds markets: Europe & North America versus Brazil & Turkey. Economia Aplicada, 17(1).

Watzka, S., &Missio, S. (2011). Financial Contagion and the European Debt Crisis. CESIFO working paper. No. 3554.

Wei, C. C. (2008). Multivariate GARCH Modeling Analysis of Unexpected USD, Yen and Euro-Dollar to Reminibi Volatility Spillover to Stock Markets. Economics Bulletin, 3(64), 1-15.

Worthington, A.C., & Higgs, H. (2003). A Multivariate GARCH Analysis of the Domestic Transmission of Energy Commodity Prices and Volatility: A Comparison of the Peak and Off-Peak Periods in the Australian Electricity Spot Market. Queensland University of Technology, School of Economics and Finance, Discussion Paper No: 140.

Zhu, L., & Yang, J. (2004). The Role of Psychic Distance in Contagion: A Gravity Model for Contagious Financial Crises. Working Paper, The George Washington University.

L'opera è pubblicata sotto Licenza Creative Commons - 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)